Tour de France stage 1 betting tips

Cadel Evans to beat Valverde :

This finish, with big slope in the last two kilometers and with low slope in the end suits both of us. We remember the win of Cadel Evans on the Fleche Wallonne in 2010 and at the top of the Mur de Bretagne (very near of this climb) last year. Valverde, as a pure puncher, like this finish too. So, here that’s 50/50, maybe a little advantage for Evans because it’s the Tour and he’s at the maximum of his motivation. But there is the shape: Evans show on the prologue that he improves his shape in comparison with the Dauphiné. But Valverde seems to be in a lesser shape than the Tour de Suisse: In Suisse he losses 27’’ seconds on Cancellara in 7.3km (23^rd) but today he losses 35’’ in 6.4km (116^th). So, Cadel Evans seems to be the best for this stage.

Evans 2pts @2.17 at Pinnacle

Albasini to beat Gerrans:

GreenEDGE say it, they will play with this two men to win a stage in the first week and in particular this stage of Seraing and Boulogne. The question is, who is the best between their? I answer Albasini. First argument, the prologue in normal time, Albasini is a little better than Gerrans on this exercise but here, in beat him for 9 seconds that means 63 positions! This show the shape of Gerrans, he’s tired after a big early season when Albasini take a great shape in Suisse and continue in France. In addition, this irregular slope suits him well. He’s not a better climber but he’s better than Gerrans in very big slope (like on the start of the climb) and in sprint for the win of the stage.

Albasini 2pts @2.04 at Pinnacle

Wiggins to beat Brajkovic:

Wiggins is always in good position in this kind of stage (9^th in stage 2 of the Dauphiné, 10^th in stage 4 of Paris-Nice and winner of one in Romandie) but Brajkovic is not always here. So it’s 60/40.

Wiggins 1pts @2.02 at Pinnacle

Simon to beat Boasson Hagen:

Boasson Hagen is better than Simon on the paper. But the French man can’t try something tomorrow on the only stage made for him. On this kind of stage on the Dauphiné he finishes second. And Boasson Hagen has many leaders to think about in Sky.

Simon 1pts @2.84 at Pinnacle.

Tour de France Prologue Betting tips

My tips:

Lepheimer to beat Coppel	2pts	@1,952	Pinnacle
Roux to beat Lemoine	3pts	@2,11	Pinnacle
Zabriskie to beat Farrar	1pts	@1,769	Pinnacle
Monfort to beat Brajkovic	3pts	@2,29	Pinnacle
Larsson to beat Gretsch	1pts	@1,752	Pinnacle

If you want proof for my odds contact me with the email address on the right.

Monfort to beat Brajkovic:


Monfort, Belgian and “Ardennais” is at home in Liège, and he gets a big motivation and confidence before this prologue. In additional he makes a lot of good short TT like this prologue this year and he will be a potential favorite for the victory tomorrow, when he thinks to play the general classification and becomes the leader of Radioshack. On their last confrontation in short TT, at Paris-Nice, Monfort beat Brajkovic (not in a very lesser shape than now) for 23 seconds…
Result: WIN


Roux to beat Lemoine:


Both of us came in shape after big injury, and they are approximately in the same timing for their return. Roux have an odd of 2 but he’s the best in this exercise! Proof: In a bad shape he finishes at 4 second of Evans on the 6.5 km TT of the Critérium International. And more: he beat Lemoine on the prologue of the Dauphine a few weeks ago, a shorter TT than in Liege. But Lemoine (a good sprinter) prefers that type of short TT and will be less well on a longer TT, even 1 kilometer more. Roux like prologue but also long TT, so he will win this head to head.
Result: LOST
Leipheimer to beat Coppel:


Ok, Leipheimer have made a bad prologue in the Tour de Suisse but he show after that the shape is coming. But Coppel don’t make a beautiful prologue in the Dauphiné, he finishes 25th with a shape near to that he will have on the Tour. In addition, Coppel work the mountain last weeks (that’s why he don’t ride French championships) and that kind of training make loos the pure power necessary for a prologue. Leipheimer is a specialist, in Paris-Nice prologue, he finishes at 3 seconds of Wiggins in front of Coppel in a great shape.
Result: LOST

Point classification / Green jersey betting advice

This is the more predictable of the additional jerseys but it still difficult…

But I can say to you that I found a great value, ready to win?

The situation for Bookies this year: the young Peter Sagan is the big favorite because of his beautiful serial victories in many one week races as the Tour de Suisse recently.

His best odds: 1/1 at WSB ; 1.95 at Bwin (French and International) or WilliamHill

His profile is perfect for a green jersey, specifically this year with new rules, but this is not the first year he wins a lot of stage and last year on the Vuelta. And everyone’s knows this is more difficult on the Tour de France. In the 2011 Vuelta he was beat by Mollema and Rodriguez because the Vuelta offers a lot of mountain but he was beat by Bennati, a sprinter, for one point!

In addition, Sagan never proves he was a true pure sprinter able to win a big flat stage with Cavendish Greipel or Kittel in a grand Tour. His situation is the same as Wiggins: OK, he’s impressive but his past doesn’t justify his odds!

So, we have to turn us to the big outsiders. For me, They are two: The pure sprinter: Mark Cavendish; and the sprinter more polyvalent: Matthew Goss.

Mark Cavendish says he don’t target the green jersey because he has to fight for his leader, Wiggins for the yellow. But we know the pride of Cavendish, if he’s not oblige to ride for Wiggins he will not do that. And he proves he’s in a big shape, never so skinny, he will win many stage made for him in the first week. A lot of points to take, because he’s better sprinter than Sagan. And for the Sagan’s stage (flat final after hilly road or the contrary) if Sagan can plays, Cavendish would maybe too or the points will be taken by the victories breakies, as that is often the case in TDF.

So, Cavendish at 5.5 at Bwin or BetVictor are good.

Second outsider: Matthew Goss: the perfect profile for a Green jersey and one big skill compared with Cavendish or Sagan, his team will be devoted to him. Indeed Liquigas (Sagan) will play the overall with Nibali and further the Sky (Cavendish) with Wiggins. Goss will have a team, Orica-GreenEDGE who want win stages with him and take a jersey. Which one? Yello? KOM? Wihte? Green? YES. This is the perfect man for this jersey, don’t think of the odds with which the Bookies control your thoughts. Think at what you can win here…

His odd is 12 (!!!) at Sportingbet. Wahoo. And many Bookie propose 10 it still very very good!

Tour de France 2012 Outright bets: Advice

I have to say it immediately: I don't like bets on the overall.  But I can’t say there are no values here…

First advice: Don't bet on the favorites for the overall! Why? Because (as we saw last year) favorites crash, became sick, or are just not in shape OFTEN so the odds on Wiggins (principally) or Evans are too small!

And with that, I found a big value: on Sportsbet we have "Any other rider than Wiggins and Evans to win the Tour de France" at 2.8 !!! 

Because, in additional of I say upper, Wiggins are NOT a favorites for me. I explain myself : This is not the first year that Wiggins is very good in Paris-Nice and not the first year he wins the Dauphiné and he never wins the Tour ! Even if they are a lot of ITT the Tour stay 3 weeks, and that's very particular. And even if we haven't a lot a high mountain, they are many stage of high mountain staying and we know Wiggins is not good in this repetition.

So, there is another interest bet: “Wiggins to not win” you find that at 1.633 on Pinnacle.

But, paradoxically, few constants cyclist are underestimated, very underestimated!

I want to speak of Frank Schleck: 5th in 2008 and 2009, 3rd in 2011 all in working for his brother !!! This year, he will be the leader and he's in same shape than other years. He starts to show on the Tour de Suisse that he will be one of the big climbers in the Tour, certainly best than Wiggins and Evans. And, even if he's not the best in TT, he has worked that, he has a very good position and he has always be better than his brother in TT.

But I don't suggest you Frank Schleck to win, I show you F. Schleck to be in the top 10 for 1.926 by Pinnacle!

Another constant cyclist, more old but fresher this year due to injury, is Levi Leipheimer. 7 times in top 10 of a big tour! He shows a big and upward shape. There is the profile of Bradley Wiggins, a little less in 

mountain and ITT but, he passes 3 weeks, he's an expert for that!

So 2.3 to be in the Top 10 on WSB is a great value!!! Lower, but still good, on Ladbrokes at 2.1.

Always on Ladbrokes and for the Top 10, I found Gesink at 1.53. This great climber who has worked is TT! Leader of the Rabobank, he was not in a great shape on last race but his shape climbs too and, as one of the best climbers of the Tour he’s gonna be a very important character of this Tour 2012.

Another value, his teammate Bauke Mollema, a big talent too. Bookies must think he will work for Gesink and scarified himself, but Gesink will have a lot of good teammates for him and Mollema will be more than that, he will be the second chance of the Rabobank. He will fight in the mountain, show us he is good in TT now and in the top 10 until the end and more if Gesink had a problem and he became the leader of the Rabobank. 7.5 on Ladbrokes to be in the top 10 ! What an odd!

Advice for the point classification betting coming soon...

Bets Stage 8 Tour de Suisse

My tips:

Gesink to beat Schleck	2pts	@2,89	Pinnacle
Costa to beat Kreuziger	2pts	@1,833	Pinnacle
Gadret to beat Nieve	1pts	@2,6	Pinnacle
Kruijswijk to beat Lovkvist	1pts	@1,901	Pinnacle

Bets Stage 7 Tour de Suisse Time Trial

My tips:

Moser to beat Kloden	2pts	@2,50	Bet365
Pinot to beat Frank	2pts	@1,952	Pinnacle
Fuglsang to beat Leipheimer	1pts	@2,33	Pinnacle
Gusev to beat Karpets	1pts	@1,833	Pinnacle

ROI Suisse: +24.19%

Bets Stage 6 Tour de Suisse

My tips:
Results:

Nordhaug to beat Howes	2pts	@1,833	Pinnacle
Albasini to beat Van Avermaet	2pts	@2,09	Pinnacle
Mondory to beat Boeckmans	1pts	@1,917	Pinnacle
Roy to beat Boivin	1pts	@1,68	Pinnacle

ROI Suisse: +46.23%

ROI: +21.14% +28.695pts

Bets Stage 5 Tour de Suisse

My tips:

Elmiger to beat Van Avermaet	2pts	@3,19	Pinnacle W
Schleck to beat Kreuziger	2pts	@2,77	Pinnacle W
Albasini to beat Gavazzi	1pts	@2,21	Pinnacle L
Allan Davis to beat Petacchi	1pts	@2,02	Pinnacle W

ROI Tour de Suisse : +51.34%

ROI : +20.75%

Betting tips Stage 4 Tour de Suisse

My tips:
Results:

Reynes to beat Breschel	2pts	@2,44	Pinnacle L
Valverde to beat Cunego	2pts	@2,13	Pinnacle L
Sagan to win	2pts	@1,87	Pinnacle W
Rui Costa to beat Roche	1pts	@2,02	Pinnacle L

ROI on the Tour de Suisse : +15.34%

Bets Stage 3 Tour de Suisse

My tips:
ROI on the Tour de Suisse : +82.01%

Rojas to beat Davis	1,5pts	@1,952	Pinnacle L
Freire to beat Boonen	1,5pts	@1,952	Pinnacle W
Guarnieri to beat Blythe	1,5pts	@1,935	Pinnacle W
Sagan to win	2pts	@3	BetvictorW

Bets Stage 7 Critérium du Dauphiné

My tips:
Yield on the Dauphiné: + 30.62%

Froome to beat Rogers	1pts	@2,13	Pinnacle L
Weening to beat Kiryenka	1pts	@2,73	Pinnacle W
Kelderman to beat Coppel	1pts	@2,28	Pinnacle W
Voeckler to beat Kern	2pts	@2,10	Pinnacle C
Le Mevel to beat Nocentini	1pts	@2,76	Pinnacle L

Bets Stage 6 Critérium du Dauphiné

My tips :
Yield on the Dauphiné : +33.24%

Kelderman to beat Martin	3pts	@1,69	Pinnacle
Luis L Sanchez to beat Kashechkin	2pts	@1,8	Pinnacle

Bets Stage 5 Critérium du Dauphiné

My tips:
Yield Dauphiné : + 25.67%

Wiggins to beat Van den Broeck	1pts	@3,03	Pinnacle
Navarro to beat Rolland	2pts	@3,29	Pinnacle

Bets Stage #4 Critérium du Dauphiné Time Trial

My tips:
Updated results : Yield on the Dauphiné : +13.71%

Durbridge to beat Boasson Hagen	1pts	@2,82	Pinnacle
Millar to beat Porte	1pts	@3,06	Pinnacle
Grabsch to beat   Rogers	1pts	@3,02	Pinnacle
Martin to beat   Wiggins	3pts	@1,833	Pinnacle
Chavanel to beat   Grivko	2pts	@1,641	Pinnacle

Bets Stage #3 Critérium du Dauphiné

My tips:
Updated results : Yield on Le Critérium du Dauphiné 2012 : +13.29%

Ciolek to beat Degenkolb	1pts	@2,4	Bet365
Van den Broeck to beat Ruijgh	1pts	@2,5	Bet365
Wiggins to beat   Martin	1pts	@2,46	Pinnacle
Bouhani to beat   Boasson Hagen	2pts	@1,725	Pinnacle

Bets Stage #2 Critérium du Dauphiné

My tips:
Update results : Great day !

Pineau to beat Iglinsky	1pts	@2,13	Pinnacle
Coppel to beat Rolland	2pts	@1,85	Sportingbet
Nocentini to beat Vanendert	1pts	@2.21	Pinnacle

Bets Stage #1 Critérium du Dauphiné

My tips Geschke to beat Martens 1pts @2,84     Pinnacle Voeckler to beat S Sanchez G 1pts @2,16    Pinnacle Van den Broeck to beat Coppel 1,5pts @1,699    Pinnacle

Bets Prologue Critérium du Dauphiné

My tips :

Martin to beat Wiggins	2pts	@2,8	Pinnacle
Westra to beat Durbridge	1pts	@2,13	Pinnacle