This is the more predictable of the additional jerseys but it still difficult…
But I can say to you that I found a great value, ready to win?
The
situation for Bookies this year: the young Peter Sagan is the big favorite
because of his beautiful serial victories in many one week races as the Tour de
Suisse recently.
His best
odds: 1/1 at WSB ; 1.95 at Bwin (French and International) or WilliamHill
His profile
is perfect for a green jersey, specifically this year with new rules, but this
is not the first year he wins a lot of stage and last year on the Vuelta. And
everyone’s knows this is more difficult on the Tour de France. In the 2011
Vuelta he was beat by Mollema and Rodriguez because the Vuelta offers a lot of
mountain but he was beat by Bennati, a sprinter, for one point!
In
addition, Sagan never proves he was a true pure sprinter able to win a big flat
stage with Cavendish Greipel or Kittel in a grand Tour. His situation is the
same as Wiggins: OK, he’s impressive but his past doesn’t justify his odds!
So, we have
to turn us to the big outsiders. For me, They are two: The pure sprinter: Mark
Cavendish; and the sprinter more polyvalent: Matthew Goss.
Mark
Cavendish says he don’t target the green jersey because he has to fight for his
leader, Wiggins for the yellow. But we know the pride of Cavendish, if he’s not
oblige to ride for Wiggins he will not do that. And he proves he’s in a big
shape, never so skinny, he will win many stage made for him in the first week.
A lot of points to take, because he’s better sprinter than Sagan. And for the
Sagan’s stage (flat final after hilly road or the contrary) if Sagan can plays,
Cavendish would maybe too or the points will be taken by the victories breakies,
as that is often the case in TDF.
So,
Cavendish at 5.5 at Bwin or BetVictor are good.
Second
outsider: Matthew Goss: the perfect profile for a Green jersey and one big
skill compared with Cavendish or Sagan, his team will be devoted to him. Indeed
Liquigas (Sagan) will play the overall with Nibali and further the Sky
(Cavendish) with Wiggins. Goss will have a team, Orica-GreenEDGE who want win
stages with him and take a jersey. Which one? Yello? KOM? Wihte?
Green? YES. This is the perfect man for this jersey, don’t think of the odds
with which the Bookies control your thoughts. Think at what you can win here…
His odd is
12 (!!!) at Sportingbet. Wahoo. And many Bookie propose 10 it still very very
good!
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