I have to
say it immediately: I don't like bets on the overall. But I can’t say there are no values here…
First advice:
Don't bet on the favorites for the overall! Why? Because (as we saw last year)
favorites crash, became sick, or are just not in shape OFTEN so the odds on
Wiggins (principally) or Evans are too small!
And with
that, I found a big value: on Sportsbet we have "Any other rider than
Wiggins and Evans to win the Tour de France" at 2.8 !!!
Because, in
additional of I say upper, Wiggins are NOT a favorites for me. I explain myself
: This is not the first year that Wiggins is very good in Paris-Nice and not
the first year he wins the Dauphiné and he never wins the Tour ! Even if they
are a lot of ITT the Tour stay 3 weeks, and that's very particular. And even if
we haven't a lot a high mountain, they are many stage of high mountain staying
and we know Wiggins is not good in this repetition.
So, there
is another interest bet: “Wiggins to not win” you find that at 1.633 on
Pinnacle.
But,
paradoxically, few constants cyclist are underestimated, very underestimated!
I want to
speak of Frank Schleck: 5th in 2008 and 2009, 3rd in 2011 all in working for
his brother !!! This year, he will be the leader and he's in same shape than
other years. He starts to show on the Tour de Suisse that he will be one of the
big climbers in the Tour, certainly best than Wiggins and Evans. And, even if
he's not the best in TT, he has worked that, he has a very good position and he
has always be better than his brother in TT.
But I don't
suggest you Frank Schleck to win, I show you F. Schleck to be in the top 10 for
1.926 by Pinnacle!
Another
constant cyclist, more old but fresher this year due to injury, is Levi
Leipheimer. 7 times in top 10 of a big tour! He shows a big and upward shape.
There is the profile of Bradley Wiggins, a little less in
mountain and ITT but,
he passes 3 weeks, he's an expert for that!
So 2.3 to
be in the Top 10 on WSB is a great value!!! Lower, but still good, on Ladbrokes
at 2.1.
Always on
Ladbrokes and for the Top 10, I found Gesink at 1.53. This great climber who
has worked is TT! Leader of the Rabobank, he was not in a great shape on last
race but his shape climbs too and, as one of the best climbers of the Tour he’s
gonna be a very important character of this Tour 2012.
Another
value, his teammate Bauke Mollema, a big talent too. Bookies must think he will
work for Gesink and scarified himself, but Gesink will have a lot of good
teammates for him and Mollema will be more than that, he will be the second
chance of the Rabobank. He will fight in the mountain, show us he is good in TT
now and in the top 10 until the end and more if Gesink had a problem and he
became the leader of the Rabobank. 7.5 on Ladbrokes to be in the top 10 ! What
an odd!
Advice for the point classification betting coming soon...
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